5. Content determination framework for 2016

The content determination framework proposed for the 2016 Census Program and beyond is a three-step process. It is iterative, meaning that each step is not executed in isolation of the other two steps and that it may need to be repeated, at least partially, as information on other steps is gathered. Table 1 summarizes this process and the dimensions considered at each step. It begins with consulting external stakeholders on their uses of the data, and the related information requirements including the requirements for relevance (topics/variables and frequency) and quality (accuracy, interpretability, coherence).

Extensive consultation with users has always been a key activity performed at the start of each Census Program cycle, typically beginning four years before Census Day. As a result, the content of the Census Program has evolved based on changes in Canadian society and the attendant data needs and priorities of the government. For each round of Census Program planning, the competing requirements of time series integrity versus changing priorities and emerging needs are balanced to determine changes to the questionnaire(s). Content decisions must also take into consideration the much broader issues of respondent burden, privacy, quality and cost. Statistical organizations are held accountable to data users, decision makers and the public to demonstrate that they have done so.

The second step is the assessment of the Canadian context which encompasses respondent burden and societal privacy concerns. This will require discussions with internal stakeholders to assess if the proposed content would likely generate excessive response burden, and with external advisory bodies such as the Office of the Privacy Commissioner of Canada and the NSC to determine whether the proposed content raises serious societal privacy concerns. Depending on the issues raised at this stage there may be a need to go back to the first step to see how these concerns might be addressed in light of the information needs. The balance of topics, i.e., the number of questions on a given topic as compared with other topics and in the context of total respondent burden, will start to be considered in this step. This could result in four possible blocks:

1. Mandatory full enumeration – Topics/variables labelled for 'full enumeration' in Step 1 for which there are no major indications of burden and privacy intrusiveness
2. Mandatory sample – Topics/variables labelled for 'full enumeration' in Step 1 for which there are major indications of burden (but no major indication of privacy intrusiveness) and topics/variables labelled for 'sample' in Step 1 for which there are no major indications of privacy intrusiveness
3. Voluntary sample – Topics/variables labelled for 'full enumeration' or 'sample' in Step 1 for which there are major indications of burden and privacy intrusiveness
4. Not to be collected in the Census Program.

The third and final step is the assessment of the Census Program content requirements in the context of Statistics Canada considerations. They include costs, operational factors, safeguards against loss of Census Program data quality and safeguards against loss of efficiency and/or quality in other Statistics Canada programs. The balance of topics included in the questionnaire will be once again considered. This step will require consultation with stakeholders internal to Statistics Canada. Depending on the outcome, there may be a need to go back to the first two steps to see how concerns raised might be addressed in light of the information needs. This could result in some further changes to the content assigned to each block in Step 2.

The rest of this section focuses on Step 1. Section 5.1 further explains how each dimension will be evaluated. The information provided to Statistics Canada by data users on their Census Program data uses and requirements, and highlighted in Section 3.3 served as a means to assess if this would be a suitable process to determine the content of the 2016 Census Program.

More information on Steps 2 and 3 can be found in the Final Report on 2016 Census Options: Proposed Content Determination Framework and Methodology Options at http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/fc-rf/reports-rapports/r2_index-eng.cfm.

5.1 Step 1 - Census Program information needs: relevance and quality requirements of users

The first step in planning any Census Program has always been to consult users about their information needs. The consultation process proposed for the 2016 cycle and beyond builds on previous Census Program consultation processes (Statistics Canada 2008b, p. 8) but includes a framework in order to provide more structure to it. It incorporates the recommendations of the National Statistics Council (2010) and the transparency and structure of the Office for National Statistics' approach in the United Kingdom for their 2011 Census (Office for National Statistics 2006).

The role of users will be to describe their Census Program data needs to Statistics Canada in terms of the seven dimensions under Step 1 in Table 1. The requirements will then be evaluated to establish the priority ranking of each topic and question to determine whether the Census Program is the appropriate instrument for a particular topic/question.

Each topic and each question will first be classified and then ranked from highest to lowest priority on each of the seven dimensions shown above in Step 1.

In terms of the strength of user need, 10 different levels of priority have been identified, as shown in Table 2. In general, statutory and regulatory uses, being tied to law, will be highest priority. Uses related to resource allocation and service delivery will also be high priority because of the direct impact on government spending and financial decisions. Planning, development monitoring, evaluation and performance reports related to programs or policies will be medium priority, as they measure accountability and inform Canadians about efficiency and effectiveness of government programs. The remaining uses, such as research, will be considered lower priority. Those information needs which serve a purpose which is national in scope will have the highest priority. Given the national role of the federal government, its uses will be assigned a higher priority than other government and non-government uses.

Thus, the highest priority will be given to federal government uses for which there is an explicit or implicit statutory or regulatory requirement. Explicit means that the legislation/regulation mentions the census specifically, while implicit signifies that the Census Program, meaning the census and/or NHS, is the traditional source of information, although it is not explicitly noted in the legislation or regulation. This approach reflects one of the recommendations put forward by the National Statistics Council (2010).

In terms of the size of the population of interest, a higher priority will be assigned to uses that require data for small geographic areas or small groups of interest. Needs for data by dissemination area or census tract will be higher priority than those at the census metropolitan area (CMA) level, which in turn will be higher than those at the provincial/territorial level. Likewise, needs for smaller populations of interest such as recent immigrants, will be higher priority than those for larger groups such as the employed population.

This is consistent with the UNECE criteria and the National Statistics Council recommendations referred to earlier. It also recognizes that data for larger geographic areas and population groups can be collected through sample surveys while it is difficult to do so for smaller geographic areas or population groups. When the population of interest, geographic area or population group, is small it typically means that in order to produce estimates with small sampling error it may be necessary to sample a large fraction of the population. In such cases, for minimal additional cost, data can be available for the entire population instead of just a portion of it.^{Footnote 1}

With respect to the suitability of alternative sources, those topics for which no alternative sources exist will be highest priority while those for which alternative sources are readily available will be lowest. Again, this is consistent with the UNECE criteria and the National Statistics Council recommendations.

Multivariate analysis is the ability to examine the interrelationships among the different variables, for example, age, education, income and immigrant status. This type of analysis is possible using Census Program data because all variables derived from the questions are available for each individual, household and dwelling, with a common reference point (e.g., Census Day). It is a significant strength when used to examine complex relationships among variables. Those uses for which there is a requirement for multivariate analysis or cross-classification of data will be higher priority than those for which a one-dimensional profile is needed. This is another of the UNECE criteria.

In terms of the need for data to be comparable across Canada and the need for data to be comparable over time (continuity over time), i.e., for trend analysis, for each of these two dimensions, highest priority will be assigned to uses for which comparability is essential and lowest priority to those for which there is no need. These are based on the UNECE criteria of including topics of national importance (comparable across the country) and that will provide comparison with previous Census Programs.

Finally, as these dimensions are to help determine the content of the 2016 Census Program, the highest priority for frequency of outputs, will be topics which are needed every five years, i.e., to be collected in 2016, followed by those which are needed every ten years, i.e., not before 2021. Those which are needed only one time or more frequently than every five years would be lowest priority as the Census Program is likely not the appropriate collection instrument.

Once each topic and each question is classified and ranked from highest to lowest priority on each of the seven dimensions, the information for a topic/question will be synthesized to give an overall high, medium, low information need priority to the topic/question. Of these seven dimensions, the ones which will be most important are strength of user need, followed by size of population of interest and suitability of alternative sources.

The above list of topics and questions will be further classified into topics and questions that require a higher or lower level of precision and a higher or lower level of detail. For those topics and questions that have been asked in the past, the recent split between full enumeration and sample-based collection will be an important aspect to consider.

The ultimate output of Step 1 will be a preliminary list of topics and variables which could be divided into up to three possible groups:

• Full enumeration – To be asked of 100% of the population because they have a high information need priority and they require a very high level of precision at the very smallest sized population of interest (geographic levels)
• Sample – To be asked of a sample of the population because they have either a high or medium information need priority and they require a lesser degree of precision
• Not to be collected in the Census Program – They have the lowest information need priority or may be more suitable for collection through other statistical programs.