Introduction

Canada's Census of Population is the largest and most important statistical data collection operation of Statistics Canada. Conducted every five years, the census provides population and dwelling counts for Canada, the provinces and territories, and smaller geographic units such as cities and districts within cities. The census program, which in 2011 consisted of the Census of Population and the National Household Survey (NHS), also provides a wide range of information about Canada's demographic, social and economic characteristics. Results are used in determining the number of seats in Parliament, to delineate electoral boundaries, to calculate billions of dollars of transfers between levels of government, and for policy development, program and service delivery, and planning by all levels of government, by the private sector and by community organizations. The census is also the benchmark for other statistical programs such as the Population Estimates Program and the Labour Force Survey, and is an important source of data for the System of National Accounts.

Because of its magnitude, the planning and consultations for the census program must begin several years before the actual census date. The major changes introduced for the 2011 Census, in particular the introduction of the voluntary NHS as a replacement for the previously mandatory census long form, have made early planning for 2016 even more important. Accordingly, Statistics Canada launched the planning for 2016 with the establishment of the 2016 Census Strategy Project in December 2010.

The objective of the 2016 Census Strategy Project is to deliver options and ultimately a detailed recommendation on the methodology for the 2016 Census of Population to the federal government (Statistics Canada 2011a). A content determination framework and criteria for inclusion of content in the 2016 Census will also be provided.

I was retained by Statistics Canada in January 2011 to perform an initial assessment of methodology options for the 2016 Census of Population. This report presents the results of my assessment, which was completed in June 2011. In addition, the report provides an overview of potential methodology approaches for censuses further in the future (2021 and beyond). The primary audiences for the report were Statistics Canada senior management, the subcommittee of the National Statistics Council struck specifically to provide independent advice with regard to the 2016 Census, and the Expert Panel Review Committee that will act as an external review body for the findings of the 2016 Census Strategy Project.

The report addresses only the methodology component of the 2016 Census planning; separate exercises are underway at Statistics Canada on constitutional and statutory requirements, census content determination frameworks, and other aspects of the Canadian context. Along with the results of these other exercises, this present report is intended to serve as an input to a more detailed assessment of methodology options for the 2016 Census, to be completed by Statistics Canada by December 2011.

The remainder of this report is structured as follows:

Overview of the study provides an overview of the study, including a description of the information sources that were used and of the international census-taking approaches that were examined.

Census-taking approaches describes each of the census methodology approaches in detail, including the necessary conditions for using the approach and its main strengths and weaknesses.

Census methods used in other countries presents a statistical overview of the census methodology approaches being used by other countries for the 2010 round of censuses, and describes general trends in census-taking methodologies since 2000. This section also provides a set of case studies that describe recent census developments and planning efforts in selected countries.

Assessment of census approaches in the Canadian context provides the initial assessment of the various census methodology approaches in the Canadian context, based on the answers to the following questions:

1. To what extent do the necessary conditions for using the approach exist at present in Canada?
2. If the necessary conditions do not exist, what does the experience of other countries tell us about the steps required to create those conditions and the likely time frame for them to become a reality?

Options retained for further study for the 2016 Census presents the recommended options to be retained for further review for the 2016 Census. An option is recommended for retention if the necessary conditions either exist or could exist by 2016.

Potential approaches for the 2021 Census and beyond presents considerations for the further investigation and assessment of census methodology approaches which, while they are not feasible for the 2016 Census, could be potential approaches for the 2021 Census or beyond.

Next steps concludes with a brief description of the next steps for Statistics Canada to develop the options and recommendations for the methodology of the 2016 Census.